Description
Summary — State of Myanmar: ISP–Myanmar’s Annual Strategic Review and Foresight 2025–2026
Published in January 2026, the State of Myanmar annual report from ISP–Myanmar assesses the major developments of 2025 and outlines potential scenarios and strategic trends for 2026.
Myanmar remains engulfed in a deepening polycrisis that risks pushing the country toward state failure. The report identifies five key dynamics from 2025: stalled unity among resistance groups; China’s increasing influence as Western interest wanes; the global focus on conflict-related economies like online scams and rare-earth trade; the junta’s growing strategic adaptability; and widespread suffering from war, natural disasters, and economic hardship with no effective safety net.
The military regime appears to be intensifying its efforts—militarily, politically, and diplomatically—to break the ongoing crisis on its own terms. Rather than a transition similar to 2010, the post-election period may resemble the era after independence (1948–58), characterized by harsh internal pacification. This suggests a move toward personalized military rule under the junta leadership, diminishing both democratic forces and regional multilateral mechanisms like ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus.
Looking ahead to 2026, the report highlights three strategic trends that will shape the country’s future: the evolving role of the Tatmadaw’s next generation in the post-election landscape; the prospects for conflict de-escalation or ceasefires; and how internal and external actors navigate China’s expanding role in Myanmar’s politics. Correctly responding to these trends could help ease the crisis, but missteps could deepen instability.
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